***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 23.8 26.4 25.3 0.2 55.0 53.0 25.3 25.7 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 24.1 26.4 25.4 0.3 58.0 53.2 25.1 25.6 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.4 25.6 0.1 54.9 52.4 25.1 25.8 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.6 19.0 23.1 0.0 51.6 50.3 17.2 19.0 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.4 26.9 23.4 -0.1 49.9 48.9 25.3 26.9 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.0 21.0 -0.1 52.5 49.0 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 23.7 26.0 25.4 0.3 56.8 53.3 24.4 25.2 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.1 21.5 -0.2 49.7 48.1 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.4 23.7 0.0 52.0 49.9 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.1 22.3 -0.1 51.3 49.1 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.1 26.7 23.1 0.0 51.0 49.4 25.3 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.3 22.6 -0.1 50.5 48.6 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.0 21.8 -0.2 51.1 47.8 25.2 26.9 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.5 25.6 23.3 -0.2 50.3 48.5 25.0 25.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.4 24.3 0.3 56.7 53.4 25.4 27.2 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.3 22.7 0.0 51.1 49.1 26.0 27.2 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.5 25.6 25.2 0.2 56.9 52.8 24.3 25.3 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.1 21.8 -0.1 50.9 48.9 24.2 25.1 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 23.7 26.0 25.5 0.2 57.3 53.0 24.6 25.2 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.2 20.4 19.1 -0.4 47.7 47.0 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.6 24.7 -0.1 52.1 50.3 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.0 24.9 0.1 53.3 51.1 24.9 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.4 25.8 25.3 0.1 55.4 52.2 25.1 25.6 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.4 23.4 -0.1 52.2 50.0 24.8 25.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 26.9 26.6 23.5 0.0 52.3 50.7 24.9 26.3 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.3 22.3 0.3 54.5 51.9 24.6 26.0 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.3 24.5 0.1 54.4 52.7 24.8 26.0 26.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.2 23.4 0.1 53.1 50.9 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.0 20.7 -0.3 49.3 48.2 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 24.1 26.1 25.4 0.2 56.7 52.8 24.8 25.9 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------