***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.9 23.9 24.4 -0.2 48.5 47.6 22.6 24.3 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.3 24.4 -0.1 48.5 48.5 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.2 24.6 24.6 -0.2 48.9 48.0 22.7 24.7 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 15.4 17.3 22.1 -0.4 45.0 45.5 15.8 17.5 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.3 22.5 -0.4 45.7 46.0 23.4 24.9 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.2 20.1 -0.4 48.7 45.6 22.0 23.2 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.1 24.4 -0.1 48.1 48.2 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.3 20.6 -0.5 45.3 45.3 10.7 12.9 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.5 22.9 -0.3 46.4 47.4 22.5 23.7 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.6 21.5 -0.3 46.3 47.0 22.6 23.9 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.6 22.2 -0.3 48.0 47.0 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.6 21.7 -0.4 47.0 45.8 22.1 23.8 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.5 20.9 -0.5 46.8 45.2 23.5 24.6 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.8 22.4 -0.5 45.4 45.6 23.3 24.1 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 24.1 25.5 23.1 -0.2 48.6 46.8 23.5 25.6 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.3 25.3 21.8 -0.4 47.7 46.5 23.5 25.5 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.4 24.2 -0.2 46.3 47.8 22.3 23.9 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.0 20.9 -0.4 45.9 46.6 22.3 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.0 24.4 -0.2 48.6 48.2 22.6 24.0 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.4 18.2 -0.7 43.3 43.9 17.1 18.9 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.0 23.8 -0.3 47.0 46.7 22.8 24.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.9 23.5 23.8 -0.4 43.5 45.7 22.9 24.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.2 24.2 -0.3 47.8 47.4 23.0 24.4 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.2 22.6 -0.4 46.0 46.7 22.4 23.6 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.0 23.9 22.5 -0.5 44.7 45.2 22.8 24.2 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 22.4 24.4 21.2 -0.1 51.0 48.9 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.7 23.5 -0.3 47.1 46.9 23.1 23.9 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 24.0 25.8 22.4 -0.3 47.8 46.4 23.6 25.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.0 17.9 19.9 -0.5 44.4 45.5 17.6 18.2 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.2 24.4 -0.2 48.9 48.0 23.0 24.3 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------