***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 22.1 21.3 21.5 -2.3 21.8 26.6 23.0 24.9 26.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 22.3 22.3 21.5 -2.3 21.9 27.2 23.8 24.7 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 22.1 21.6 21.5 -2.4 21.1 26.0 23.8 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 14.9 14.8 18.9 -2.2 24.7 27.5 16.1 17.5 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 22.1 22.0 19.6 -2.4 21.4 26.6 23.0 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 21.2 21.1 17.5 -2.2 25.3 29.0 21.7 23.1 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 21.6 22.2 21.4 -2.3 21.3 26.8 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 10.6 10.1 17.5 -2.5 21.8 26.3 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 21.8 21.2 20.3 -2.4 20.5 26.9 23.0 24.1 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 21.6 21.2 18.5 -2.5 21.4 26.6 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 22.1 21.7 19.7 -2.4 22.8 27.9 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 21.1 20.8 18.6 -2.4 23.3 27.5 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 22.2 22.0 18.9 -2.3 23.9 28.0 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 22.1 21.2 19.6 -2.8 18.3 23.8 23.8 24.3 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 22.8 23.0 21.2 -1.9 27.5 30.0 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 22.8 23.0 19.2 -2.3 24.0 28.5 23.8 25.1 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 21.8 21.4 21.1 -2.3 20.6 27.2 23.2 24.8 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 21.1 20.4 17.6 -2.7 19.8 25.2 22.5 23.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 21.7 22.0 21.5 -2.3 22.2 27.2 23.4 24.3 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 16.5 16.2 15.2 -2.8 19.8 24.1 16.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 21.6 21.6 21.1 -2.5 19.7 25.5 23.4 24.2 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 22.0 21.7 20.9 -2.5 19.5 25.3 23.5 25.0 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 22.1 22.0 21.4 -2.3 23.2 27.4 23.8 24.4 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 21.5 20.8 19.6 -2.7 19.7 25.2 23.2 23.8 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 22.1 21.8 20.0 -2.4 21.0 25.3 23.2 24.2 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 21.8 21.8 18.3 -1.9 28.0 31.4 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 21.7 21.1 20.8 -2.4 21.0 25.7 23.4 24.4 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 22.8 22.6 19.8 -2.0 26.4 29.1 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 16.2 15.7 16.7 -2.8 19.2 24.2 17.1 18.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 21.7 22.4 21.5 -2.3 21.8 26.6 23.5 24.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------