***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 21.0 21.6 20.1 -2.1 30.5 29.8 21.7 24.0 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.1 22.1 20.2 -1.9 30.1 31.3 22.7 24.7 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 21.6 22.0 19.9 -2.3 28.3 28.4 22.4 25.0 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 14.3 13.5 16.4 -2.8 24.0 23.9 14.8 17.7 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 22.1 21.5 17.7 -2.9 21.4 23.9 22.5 24.9 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 19.5 19.1 14.9 -3.5 17.8 19.1 22.0 22.9 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 21.8 22.4 20.0 -2.0 28.5 29.7 22.7 24.2 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 9.0 10.0 15.2 -3.2 20.0 22.2 11.7 12.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 21.4 20.6 18.8 -2.7 24.2 25.5 22.3 24.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 20.8 20.0 16.5 -3.0 21.5 23.5 22.3 23.9 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 21.3 20.5 17.9 -3.1 20.3 22.7 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 19.9 20.6 16.3 -3.1 20.6 22.6 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 21.3 20.9 17.1 -3.2 19.6 21.9 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 21.5 20.9 18.5 -2.4 26.6 27.6 22.0 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 22.1 21.4 19.2 -2.6 24.8 24.4 23.4 24.7 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 21.8 21.8 17.2 -3.1 19.5 21.9 23.0 24.6 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 21.8 22.3 19.9 -1.8 30.0 31.7 22.3 23.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 20.4 19.9 15.6 -3.0 23.9 24.8 21.5 23.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 21.6 21.8 20.2 -1.9 30.6 31.6 22.1 24.2 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 15.1 16.2 13.5 -3.0 21.6 24.2 17.4 18.3 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 21.7 21.3 19.6 -2.6 25.4 26.1 22.2 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 22.0 22.3 19.8 -1.8 29.3 31.1 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 21.6 22.5 20.2 -1.8 31.5 32.3 22.5 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 20.7 20.6 18.2 -2.7 26.1 26.5 22.0 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 22.0 21.5 18.7 -2.5 27.9 26.6 22.2 24.7 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 20.6 21.5 15.6 -2.9 22.8 24.2 22.1 23.8 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 22.1 22.0 19.4 -2.2 29.5 28.7 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 21.4 21.4 17.4 -3.0 22.9 22.6 22.5 24.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 15.0 15.3 14.9 -2.9 23.7 25.2 16.8 18.4 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 21.7 21.9 20.2 -2.0 29.3 30.1 22.3 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------