***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 12.0 11.9 12.8 -1.0 23.2 27.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.1 12.7 -0.9 27.4 30.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 13.6 13.3 13.0 -0.9 23.9 28.2 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 8.3 8.3 10.3 -1.1 20.5 24.9 8.5 9.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 10.4 10.1 10.6 -1.1 20.9 24.6 10.6 11.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 9.2 9.2 8.3 -1.0 22.2 24.3 9.5 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.2 12.7 -1.0 25.4 28.9 12.3 12.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 4.1 3.8 8.1 -1.0 20.7 24.7 4.3 4.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 11.4 11.2 10.8 -0.9 23.2 27.1 11.5 12.0 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 11.4 11.2 9.1 -0.9 21.3 25.8 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 11.2 11.0 10.0 -1.0 21.2 25.1 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.0 -1.0 21.5 24.9 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 10.6 10.4 8.9 -1.0 20.2 23.6 10.8 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 11.8 11.9 10.8 -0.8 25.1 28.3 12.3 12.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 12.2 12.2 11.7 -0.9 23.1 27.2 12.3 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 11.5 11.4 9.6 -1.0 21.5 24.8 11.7 12.1 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 12.3 12.4 12.6 -0.9 28.3 31.2 12.6 12.9 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 9.7 9.6 8.5 -0.9 22.4 26.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 12.0 12.0 12.8 -0.9 28.1 30.5 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 5.8 5.5 6.4 -1.0 21.5 24.9 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 11.4 11.6 12.1 -1.0 22.7 26.8 11.7 11.9 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.4 12.5 -0.9 27.1 29.6 11.6 12.4 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 11.5 11.6 12.6 -0.8 28.7 31.2 11.9 12.2 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 11.4 11.3 10.6 -0.9 23.9 27.9 11.8 12.1 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 11.5 11.4 11.5 -1.2 20.2 24.4 11.9 12.4 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 10.3 10.3 8.4 -0.9 25.4 27.3 10.5 10.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 11.8 11.8 12.2 -1.1 22.0 25.9 12.4 12.7 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 10.3 10.2 10.7 -1.0 22.9 26.1 10.5 10.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 8.3 8.1 7.7 -0.9 21.3 25.5 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.9 -1.0 25.6 28.7 12.5 12.8 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------