***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.0 15.2 0.2 56.2 54.9 13.7 14.8 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.7 15.2 0.3 57.7 55.4 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.3 15.3 0.2 56.1 54.6 14.8 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.3 12.6 0.1 57.1 53.8 9.7 10.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.0 12.6 0.1 56.5 53.3 11.9 12.9 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.6 10.6 0.1 54.5 53.0 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.0 15.2 0.3 57.9 55.3 13.3 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.3 10.3 0.1 53.9 51.4 5.1 5.8 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.8 12.9 0.2 55.7 53.8 13.0 13.7 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.4 11.3 0.1 54.5 52.2 13.0 13.3 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.4 11.9 0.1 56.7 52.8 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.7 11.1 0.1 56.3 52.7 10.9 11.4 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.1 10.8 0.1 54.4 52.9 12.6 12.9 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.5 12.9 0.1 54.2 52.8 13.7 14.1 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.6 13.9 0.2 57.5 54.5 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.9 11.5 0.1 56.5 53.6 12.8 13.8 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 15.0 0.3 57.3 55.5 13.4 15.0 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.6 10.5 0.1 55.2 52.2 11.7 12.5 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 15.1 0.3 57.0 55.1 13.5 14.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.0 8.2 -0.1 49.4 49.6 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.1 14.3 0.2 56.7 54.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.1 14.7 0.2 55.9 53.7 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.2 14.9 0.2 56.6 54.8 13.2 14.1 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.0 12.6 0.1 56.2 53.6 13.0 13.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.4 13.7 0.2 56.4 54.5 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.6 10.6 0.2 58.0 53.8 11.7 12.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.4 14.5 0.3 57.3 55.3 12.8 13.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.7 13.0 0.2 57.4 54.2 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.5 9.8 0.0 51.1 50.0 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.1 15.3 0.2 56.8 54.9 13.2 15.0 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------