***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 11.8 12.5 14.0 -0.5 41.0 43.8 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.4 12.1 13.9 -0.4 41.1 44.6 11.6 12.7 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.9 14.0 -0.5 39.9 43.0 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.0 8.3 11.2 -0.8 35.8 40.1 8.3 9.3 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.5 11.3 -0.7 35.3 40.0 10.3 11.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.1 9.3 -0.6 39.4 41.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.0 12.8 13.9 -0.4 41.2 44.5 12.1 13.1 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.7 4.1 9.0 -0.7 34.9 39.0 4.1 4.9 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.6 11.5 -0.7 35.5 41.0 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.2 11.5 9.9 -0.7 34.6 39.6 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.9 10.9 10.6 -0.7 35.4 39.7 10.9 11.8 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.1 9.9 9.8 -0.6 36.9 40.6 9.7 10.4 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.1 9.5 -0.5 39.0 42.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 12.0 11.8 11.5 -0.7 33.7 40.4 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 12.5 12.8 12.5 -0.7 36.5 40.6 12.7 13.2 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 11.3 11.6 10.2 -0.6 38.1 41.6 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 12.0 12.8 13.8 -0.4 41.9 45.3 12.6 13.0 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.9 9.8 9.2 -0.7 33.0 39.7 9.8 10.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.0 12.4 13.9 -0.5 40.5 44.0 11.9 13.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.8 6.1 7.0 -0.7 34.1 38.4 5.9 6.8 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.7 13.0 -0.6 36.7 41.6 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.2 13.4 -0.5 39.5 43.1 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 11.3 11.5 13.6 -0.5 39.4 43.1 11.2 12.4 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 11.3 11.4 11.3 -0.6 35.3 41.0 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.9 12.4 -0.7 37.1 41.5 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 9.4 -0.3 42.6 44.7 10.4 10.9 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.6 13.2 -0.5 40.0 43.7 11.3 12.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.8 11.6 -0.7 37.7 40.7 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.0 8.4 -0.7 31.1 37.9 8.1 8.9 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.7 12.5 14.0 -0.5 41.1 43.9 12.2 12.7 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------