***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 10.2 9.9 11.8 -1.7 19.3 25.4 11.0 12.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 10.4 10.2 11.6 -1.7 20.4 25.6 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 12.2 11.6 11.9 -1.6 20.6 25.3 13.1 14.5 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 6.1 6.4 9.5 -1.6 23.0 26.3 7.9 9.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 8.8 8.6 9.8 -1.7 21.3 24.9 9.6 11.4 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 8.0 7.8 7.5 -1.5 23.6 26.6 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 10.0 10.1 11.6 -1.7 19.5 25.5 11.5 12.5 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 2.7 2.2 7.1 -1.7 19.5 23.6 3.2 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 9.5 9.3 10.0 -1.5 21.9 25.9 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 9.4 9.8 8.2 -1.6 20.4 24.5 10.8 11.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 9.3 9.8 9.2 -1.6 20.9 24.8 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 7.5 7.1 8.0 -1.7 18.8 24.3 8.8 9.8 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 9.1 9.0 8.1 -1.6 19.5 24.6 10.2 11.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 10.4 9.9 9.7 -1.6 19.4 24.5 11.5 12.4 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 11.2 11.1 11.1 -1.3 25.8 29.5 11.6 13.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 9.9 10.1 8.8 -1.6 20.8 25.5 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 10.5 10.5 11.4 -1.7 20.5 26.0 11.6 13.3 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 8.2 7.9 7.5 -1.6 19.4 25.1 9.4 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 10.5 10.0 11.6 -1.6 20.8 25.9 11.4 12.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 4.3 4.1 5.5 -1.7 18.1 23.6 5.6 6.4 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 9.8 9.4 11.2 -1.6 21.0 25.4 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 10.0 9.4 11.3 -1.7 18.9 24.4 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 10.3 9.8 11.5 -1.5 21.2 26.4 11.1 12.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 10.0 9.4 9.6 -1.6 19.9 25.1 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 9.7 9.3 10.6 -1.9 20.7 24.6 11.0 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 9.1 9.2 7.6 -1.5 23.4 27.7 9.6 10.7 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 10.3 9.7 11.2 -1.8 20.0 25.0 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 8.7 9.2 10.0 -1.4 25.8 28.2 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 6.9 6.5 6.7 -1.7 19.1 24.1 7.5 9.5 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 10.2 10.1 11.8 -1.7 19.6 25.1 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------