***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9.6 9.0 10.4 -2.1 15.8 19.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 10.0 9.7 10.3 -1.8 17.7 21.4 10.8 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 11.5 11.4 10.6 -1.8 17.9 20.8 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 6.2 5.6 7.8 -2.1 16.8 19.3 7.2 9.0 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 8.8 8.5 8.6 -2.0 16.3 19.6 9.2 9.9 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 7.3 6.9 5.8 -2.0 14.4 17.3 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 9.7 9.3 10.1 -2.0 16.9 19.3 10.6 12.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 2.1 2.0 6.1 -1.6 19.4 23.0 3.5 4.5 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 9.4 8.8 9.0 -1.5 17.7 22.6 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 9.4 9.0 7.2 -1.5 19.0 23.4 10.6 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 9.3 9.0 8.2 -1.7 16.7 20.4 10.5 11.1 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 7.7 7.6 7.1 -1.7 19.0 21.5 8.3 9.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 8.6 8.3 7.1 -1.9 13.2 17.5 10.0 10.9 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 10.4 10.1 8.9 -1.2 22.5 27.5 10.6 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 10.2 9.8 9.4 -1.9 13.4 17.7 11.2 11.8 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 9.3 8.9 7.7 -1.9 15.0 18.5 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 10.2 10.3 10.1 -1.6 22.1 23.6 11.3 12.3 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 8.3 8.0 6.7 -1.4 23.5 26.0 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 10.0 9.8 10.4 -1.6 19.8 23.2 10.9 12.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.5 4.0 4.8 -1.4 24.2 27.0 4.7 6.0 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 9.4 9.0 10.0 -1.8 15.8 19.9 10.5 11.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 9.7 9.5 10.4 -1.4 24.3 26.0 10.2 11.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 10.0 10.0 10.5 -1.3 23.1 26.2 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 10.0 9.6 8.8 -1.4 21.8 25.5 10.0 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 9.8 9.2 9.4 -2.3 14.0 17.4 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 8.3 7.9 6.2 -1.9 15.9 19.5 9.8 10.2 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 9.8 9.3 9.8 -2.3 14.5 17.5 10.8 11.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 8.4 8.1 8.3 -2.0 15.3 18.3 9.2 10.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.5 7.2 6.0 -1.2 24.5 27.7 7.6 8.6 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 9.9 9.6 10.5 -1.9 17.5 20.6 10.9 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------