***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 85.2 82.1 89.1 125.5 72.0 64.4 56.6 66.4 78.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 79.2 84.0 81.3 124.6 70.1 65.7 51.2 64.9 78.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 78.8 90.7 84.5 122.4 69.0 63.1 60.1 71.8 82.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 103.5 126.4 105.1 145.3 83.3 72.4 56.0 76.4 92.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 81.3 95.9 92.9 133.4 79.0 67.8 53.7 64.2 70.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 87.5 100.3 106.9 130.7 79.5 69.8 46.7 62.4 69.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 72.0 70.0 79.3 120.6 68.4 63.1 40.0 55.6 67.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 119.4 122.3 96.4 122.3 73.3 63.0 88.0 97.2 111.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 71.5 76.8 88.8 123.3 72.3 63.3 50.6 57.1 69.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 88.2 99.1 98.6 119.7 71.0 61.9 47.3 66.1 97.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 71.2 77.0 87.4 127.0 76.3 64.9 42.3 56.1 64.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 74.0 80.4 85.9 125.4 75.6 63.8 45.9 60.4 69.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 79.5 86.5 99.8 133.2 78.9 68.0 42.1 61.4 69.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 93.8 95.4 101.4 114.3 67.2 59.7 66.0 83.7 94.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 70.1 85.0 98.4 156.2 85.6 74.2 38.3 52.5 64.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 73.3 80.2 92.6 132.4 78.6 67.5 37.5 60.4 72.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 68.3 73.4 76.7 117.2 65.3 61.6 43.2 61.6 74.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 78.4 92.1 103.1 115.8 67.7 60.2 63.5 72.9 89.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 91.1 91.2 81.7 124.5 69.8 65.4 54.7 66.9 86.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 86.1 87.2 104.6 120.3 72.5 63.0 61.7 71.8 83.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 72.0 67.4 87.3 125.2 70.8 63.2 42.9 59.6 64.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 77.9 76.6 78.2 118.8 66.5 62.4 53.1 66.3 76.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 63.3 71.2 82.4 121.6 69.1 63.1 43.3 59.6 71.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 80.8 84.4 93.8 115.7 65.9 59.9 66.5 76.6 84.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 87.6 99.0 103.8 134.4 79.2 68.1 53.7 62.4 73.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 70.1 76.9 95.9 138.0 81.2 70.4 43.6 59.2 65.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 85.6 95.5 97.7 127.6 74.9 65.3 47.2 68.8 91.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 67.2 77.3 100.0 146.8 83.0 72.2 39.8 52.7 66.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 95.4 126.4 105.3 118.3 70.3 61.6 74.5 84.3 113.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 80.4 86.6 82.3 125.0 70.3 65.3 42.1 59.5 84.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------