***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 23.5 26.8 17.5 95.0 57.1 46.4 8.9 20.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 24.0 25.3 14.8 91.4 58.9 47.9 13.9 22.2 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 22.0 24.7 16.0 89.2 56.2 46.7 8.4 17.4 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.5 30.1 20.9 116.8 66.9 52.8 8.7 15.4 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.3 22.3 18.1 102.9 60.8 49.5 8.1 13.7 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.7 17.6 22.7 111.5 63.9 51.8 10.1 14.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 18.2 14.8 91.2 56.5 46.9 9.0 12.8 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.7 27.5 20.2 102.2 60.6 50.7 15.7 24.3 30.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.0 20.3 18.0 93.6 57.8 47.2 10.9 17.7 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 18.8 20.9 96.2 58.3 48.6 6.7 11.8 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.0 21.8 17.6 107.3 63.0 50.8 7.1 16.6 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.3 17.8 106.1 63.1 51.4 5.6 10.3 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.8 18.7 20.5 113.9 67.0 52.8 4.6 9.8 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.0 21.1 19.3 86.6 53.7 46.4 13.4 18.9 31.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.9 19.2 18.3 124.1 72.0 54.5 2.5 11.4 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.5 18.7 19.1 112.9 67.4 51.7 4.9 6.4 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.3 20.1 13.5 82.7 56.1 44.9 10.1 17.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 18.9 22.0 92.4 55.3 48.8 10.9 18.0 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.1 22.2 14.2 86.8 56.8 47.1 12.6 18.8 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.9 19.6 22.0 100.2 58.5 50.9 6.5 15.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.0 18.4 17.7 96.6 59.6 46.8 7.5 15.2 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 20.9 18.2 12.4 73.5 52.1 42.5 11.4 17.9 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.6 13.8 82.0 53.2 45.9 11.8 18.8 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.5 22.5 19.0 90.0 54.1 48.0 13.1 20.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 9.3 25.1 20.4 105.4 60.6 47.5 9.8 17.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.4 19.6 18.1 117.8 68.9 54.3 5.2 11.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.9 25.1 19.5 99.1 59.1 47.0 5.7 17.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.3 17.0 20.4 120.9 69.6 53.9 5.4 8.2 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.6 22.6 21.3 91.9 54.9 48.3 14.3 21.3 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.8 22.7 15.2 92.3 57.6 47.8 13.4 18.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------