***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 8.9 17.8 16.9 100.0 60.0 49.8 5.7 15.9 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.1 17.2 15.7 97.2 59.7 49.4 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 20.8 22.3 17.4 106.3 62.2 52.6 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.8 29.2 20.9 116.8 68.1 54.3 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.3 22.8 19.3 112.9 66.9 52.9 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.5 16.9 23.0 109.1 60.2 51.3 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.8 15.4 95.6 58.3 48.7 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 29.3 37.8 21.7 111.1 64.0 52.3 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.6 20.3 18.2 104.0 64.5 51.0 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.6 21.6 21.6 106.1 62.4 51.2 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.5 18.0 17.4 107.2 63.0 50.3 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.1 17.5 19.5 112.4 66.2 51.3 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 9.2 24.2 23.0 121.2 70.2 52.9 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.7 24.7 22.1 101.2 59.8 50.6 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.8 18.5 120.7 69.6 54.7 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.1 21.9 19.9 113.1 66.5 50.9 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.5 15.0 91.6 58.3 47.5 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.4 25.1 24.6 109.6 62.3 52.3 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.2 14.1 16.1 100.5 60.9 50.0 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.3 22.9 25.3 116.3 65.4 55.3 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.1 17.5 104.9 63.6 52.2 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.5 15.2 16.4 101.7 61.7 51.3 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.9 18.6 16.9 103.1 63.1 50.3 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.6 24.7 21.6 107.4 63.2 52.5 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.7 20.4 19.9 105.6 63.3 52.3 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.1 19.5 21.2 122.5 67.3 54.4 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.6 18.2 98.9 59.5 49.6 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.2 19.8 116.4 67.8 54.2 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 28.3 33.3 25.4 113.9 64.4 54.2 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.5 16.3 102.2 60.5 50.9 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------