***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 14.9 20.5 113.5 63.8 51.9 7.5 12.5 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.2 18.5 119.9 68.0 55.7 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 16.2 17.3 23.3 133.2 72.9 59.2 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 22.7 28.3 27.8 155.3 78.2 58.9 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 25.3 30.8 27.6 154.8 78.3 62.3 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 15.3 17.6 26.9 128.5 70.8 59.2 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.3 16.8 109.3 65.2 53.5 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 28.7 32.4 26.5 143.9 75.9 62.3 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 18.9 18.0 25.1 139.2 74.0 58.0 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 22.0 22.9 27.7 142.5 75.6 61.4 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 17.0 19.1 27.4 147.1 77.3 61.7 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 20.0 19.8 24.3 141.3 74.1 60.3 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 17.0 20.4 30.7 155.4 79.3 65.6 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.3 17.9 26.3 121.6 69.0 56.7 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 23.0 28.6 164.8 80.2 58.7 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 18.3 23.8 28.4 154.4 78.5 64.5 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.6 16.1 106.2 61.6 52.1 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 21.3 23.8 28.7 135.5 74.7 61.0 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.8 13.8 19.3 122.1 69.4 56.0 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 19.7 22.2 30.9 148.9 80.6 66.8 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.3 16.7 23.7 135.0 72.6 56.4 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.7 10.9 17.6 114.5 66.2 53.4 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.0 12.5 20.6 120.9 68.6 55.4 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 20.7 22.5 26.3 129.3 71.6 58.5 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.9 20.3 27.0 136.5 72.5 58.6 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 20.8 25.9 27.4 141.9 76.4 62.0 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.4 22.8 115.8 65.8 53.2 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.9 23.0 27.7 161.8 80.2 59.5 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 26.3 28.4 31.2 144.0 76.3 64.6 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.5 12.8 19.6 121.9 69.5 56.6 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------