***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 25.4 31.8 34.3 193.6 87.5 81.1 7.2 9.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 18.4 21.6 32.3 184.8 84.0 78.7 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 23.9 31.6 27.7 161.8 82.0 74.9 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 28.1 37.2 35.4 190.7 86.9 81.6 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 17.5 22.1 27.9 163.2 81.1 74.1 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 17.5 23.9 34.4 176.8 85.5 78.1 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 15.0 22.8 32.2 179.3 84.5 78.5 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 24.0 25.9 28.1 131.5 74.6 66.7 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.3 22.6 27.5 159.1 81.3 73.9 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 21.7 24.6 28.4 137.0 76.4 68.8 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.4 19.5 25.0 142.4 76.4 68.8 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 16.5 18.7 24.3 140.7 76.0 68.3 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 13.5 15.4 25.6 140.5 76.6 67.6 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 23.9 30.6 33.6 146.9 80.9 71.7 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 16.0 23.6 33.1 212.1 88.8 82.6 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 19.7 24.2 25.2 147.9 79.1 69.4 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 17.1 23.0 32.1 182.5 83.3 76.7 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 24.2 25.5 27.8 129.9 74.4 67.1 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 19.1 25.5 32.1 184.3 84.9 78.6 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 20.2 19.2 26.4 116.9 70.1 62.2 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 18.1 21.4 28.3 165.5 82.4 75.8 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 19.9 24.7 31.8 182.5 82.8 76.4 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 18.1 21.1 31.1 177.1 84.6 77.5 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 22.4 25.0 26.9 137.7 78.2 70.3 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 19.3 28.6 36.5 190.4 87.1 79.6 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 14.7 19.1 29.2 166.9 81.5 73.4 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 25.8 38.7 37.2 197.4 88.4 81.5 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 15.1 21.9 32.0 187.6 87.0 79.3 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 24.1 24.5 27.5 125.4 72.8 65.3 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 17.2 21.4 31.1 180.2 83.4 78.5 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------