***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.5 23.3 0.0 55.5 51.6 23.6 24.4 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.3 23.4 0.2 60.2 55.0 23.7 24.8 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.2 23.5 0.0 56.5 52.0 23.6 24.5 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.3 20.6 -0.3 49.0 47.2 16.0 17.4 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 23.9 24.9 21.5 -0.2 50.7 47.9 24.0 24.9 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.2 19.0 -0.3 49.7 45.6 22.4 23.2 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.7 23.4 0.2 59.1 55.1 23.3 24.1 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 11.6 12.5 19.3 -0.4 47.1 44.6 11.9 12.6 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.1 22.1 -0.1 52.2 49.4 23.6 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 23.2 24.0 20.4 -0.2 50.0 46.9 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.6 21.4 -0.2 50.6 47.6 23.6 24.6 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.7 23.6 20.4 -0.3 49.1 46.2 22.6 23.6 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 23.8 24.7 20.4 -0.3 50.4 46.8 23.7 24.7 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 23.2 24.2 21.5 -0.3 48.7 46.7 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.3 22.3 -0.1 51.8 49.8 24.1 25.2 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.3 20.8 -0.2 50.8 47.7 24.2 25.3 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.7 23.3 0.4 60.7 56.6 23.2 23.7 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.3 19.6 -0.3 47.5 45.4 22.8 23.5 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.9 23.5 0.2 61.7 55.4 23.4 23.9 25.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 17.8 18.4 17.0 -0.5 41.0 41.3 18.0 18.7 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.3 22.9 -0.2 50.8 48.6 23.6 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.2 23.0 0.2 59.3 54.1 23.6 24.7 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.6 23.5 0.3 63.6 56.5 23.8 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 22.9 24.0 21.6 -0.2 50.6 47.8 23.2 23.9 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.6 21.8 -0.1 51.4 49.0 23.4 24.6 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.3 19.9 0.0 52.7 50.0 23.2 24.3 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.0 22.6 0.0 54.6 51.2 23.2 24.3 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.4 21.2 -0.3 50.3 47.5 24.1 25.4 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 17.7 18.3 18.6 -0.5 44.9 43.1 17.8 18.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.2 23.5 0.2 60.2 54.3 23.5 24.5 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------