***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 23.8 26.7 25.4 0.6 59.5 57.1 23.8 25.9 27.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 27.2 27.7 25.6 1.0 67.3 61.1 24.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 26.8 27.2 25.7 0.8 60.9 58.6 24.1 26.3 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 16.9 18.8 22.9 0.2 52.0 53.0 16.5 18.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 24.5 27.3 23.5 0.3 54.6 54.2 25.0 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.8 20.9 0.2 53.3 52.0 23.6 24.7 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.6 25.6 1.0 66.0 60.7 23.9 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.7 14.4 21.6 0.3 54.1 53.4 12.7 14.1 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 24.0 26.8 23.9 0.5 56.5 55.8 24.2 26.4 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 24.0 26.6 22.5 0.5 55.2 54.5 24.3 26.1 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 24.2 26.8 23.1 0.3 53.5 53.7 25.0 26.4 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 23.6 25.6 22.7 0.3 53.6 53.3 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.7 26.6 21.9 0.2 52.3 51.9 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.6 23.7 0.7 58.2 57.4 24.5 25.7 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 25.2 27.2 23.9 0.2 54.9 53.6 24.6 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 25.1 27.4 22.7 0.3 52.8 52.9 25.7 27.2 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 26.6 26.9 25.6 1.2 68.2 62.2 23.4 25.1 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 23.6 26.0 22.0 0.5 54.8 54.9 23.6 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 26.7 26.8 25.8 1.1 67.6 61.4 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.9 20.6 19.3 0.3 53.7 53.0 19.3 20.3 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 24.1 27.0 24.8 0.5 57.0 55.6 24.0 26.4 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.3 26.9 25.4 1.1 66.3 61.2 24.1 25.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 27.0 27.3 25.8 1.2 68.4 61.8 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.0 26.2 23.7 0.7 58.2 57.1 24.1 25.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 24.2 26.7 23.5 0.4 56.4 54.9 24.1 26.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 26.2 26.4 22.0 0.4 57.7 54.2 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 24.1 26.4 24.5 0.6 59.2 56.6 23.9 25.9 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 25.1 27.0 23.1 0.1 52.0 52.3 24.7 26.9 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 18.9 20.6 21.0 0.4 53.6 54.0 19.0 20.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 27.1 27.2 25.6 0.9 66.0 60.0 23.9 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------