***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.6 24.3 0.5 56.3 56.0 23.3 24.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.2 24.4 0.7 58.3 57.9 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.3 24.6 0.6 54.7 56.0 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.6 21.9 0.2 49.6 52.3 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.4 22.4 0.3 48.9 52.3 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.3 19.8 0.1 47.1 51.3 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.5 24.4 0.7 57.0 58.0 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.6 20.4 0.1 47.2 51.6 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.5 22.8 0.3 49.7 53.0 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.5 21.3 0.2 48.7 52.3 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.8 22.0 0.2 48.2 52.6 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.9 21.5 0.2 48.3 52.1 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.6 20.8 0.1 46.8 51.5 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.4 22.4 0.3 52.0 53.0 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.7 22.8 0.3 54.3 53.5 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 26.1 25.7 21.6 0.2 48.2 52.2 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.6 24.4 0.8 60.8 58.8 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.4 20.8 0.3 48.3 52.5 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.4 24.5 0.7 58.2 57.6 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 18.6 18.1 0.1 47.6 50.9 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.6 23.7 0.3 50.4 53.2 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.3 24.0 0.6 58.3 56.9 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.1 24.4 0.7 58.5 57.3 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.3 22.5 0.4 50.6 53.7 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.3 24.9 22.5 0.3 53.2 53.7 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.8 21.0 0.5 54.1 54.2 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.6 23.5 0.5 55.3 55.5 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.8 22.1 0.2 50.4 52.1 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.0 18.1 19.8 0.2 47.7 51.8 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.9 24.4 0.7 56.9 57.4 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------