***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.3 22.6 -0.4 48.9 46.4 22.9 24.3 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.9 22.7 -0.3 51.5 47.6 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 22.8 24.6 22.6 -0.5 48.1 45.3 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 15.4 16.6 19.6 -0.7 42.3 42.9 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 22.3 23.8 20.6 -0.7 43.0 42.9 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.2 22.6 18.0 -0.9 42.8 42.1 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.7 22.7 -0.2 52.2 48.0 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.8 12.2 18.2 -1.0 41.9 40.7 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.5 21.3 -0.7 43.6 43.4 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 21.9 23.4 19.3 -0.9 42.7 41.6 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.3 23.7 20.5 -0.8 42.6 42.3 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.3 19.4 -0.9 42.4 42.0 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.6 19.6 -0.8 42.9 42.9 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 22.5 24.0 20.7 -0.9 42.2 41.3 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.4 24.1 21.7 -0.5 46.0 45.6 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.0 20.0 -0.8 42.4 42.9 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.6 22.5 -0.1 54.9 49.6 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 21.4 22.7 18.5 -1.0 42.9 40.1 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 22.7 24.5 22.7 -0.3 52.5 47.4 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 16.8 17.9 16.1 -1.2 42.2 39.1 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 22.1 23.6 22.1 -0.7 44.7 43.6 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.8 22.3 -0.3 53.5 48.0 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.0 25.0 22.7 -0.2 54.1 47.7 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 21.9 23.6 20.7 -0.8 42.6 41.8 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.4 23.8 21.1 -0.5 47.0 45.1 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.2 18.8 -0.6 46.3 45.1 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.4 24.2 21.9 -0.4 49.1 46.4 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.2 23.5 20.3 -0.7 42.3 43.1 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 16.7 17.5 17.6 -1.2 41.4 39.0 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 22.9 24.8 22.7 -0.3 51.4 47.2 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------