***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.9 14.0 0.5 65.9 60.9 12.0 12.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.9 13.8 0.5 65.9 62.4 12.0 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.8 14.1 0.5 67.2 62.5 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.7 11.3 0.3 60.2 57.1 8.5 9.3 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.4 11.7 0.4 64.2 60.5 10.6 11.2 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.1 9.3 0.3 62.7 58.3 9.4 9.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.0 13.8 0.5 66.3 61.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.9 9.0 0.2 57.7 55.1 4.2 4.8 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.5 11.9 0.5 68.6 63.3 11.5 11.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.2 10.1 0.3 61.9 58.3 11.4 11.7 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.9 11.1 0.4 64.2 60.0 11.1 11.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.0 10.0 0.3 59.7 57.2 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.4 9.9 0.3 63.0 59.7 10.6 11.2 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.6 13.0 11.7 0.4 64.8 61.4 12.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.1 12.7 0.4 65.1 61.6 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.4 10.6 0.4 62.8 60.2 11.7 12.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.4 13.6 0.5 65.5 62.5 12.3 12.7 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.6 9.4 0.3 60.1 58.0 9.9 10.3 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.2 13.9 0.6 69.6 64.2 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.4 7.2 0.1 55.2 53.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.5 13.2 0.4 64.7 61.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.4 13.6 0.5 66.4 63.1 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 12.7 13.1 13.8 0.6 73.7 67.0 11.6 12.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.3 11.6 0.4 65.6 62.0 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.8 12.7 0.4 61.7 58.5 11.8 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.9 11.0 9.4 0.3 60.6 57.8 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.0 13.4 0.4 63.9 59.8 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.0 11.7 0.3 61.4 58.3 10.4 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.3 8.6 0.2 59.2 56.7 8.2 9.0 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.2 14.0 0.5 66.6 62.5 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------