***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 15.5 0.7 64.4 60.3 13.4 14.3 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.5 15.5 0.7 64.4 59.8 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 15.7 0.7 64.1 60.8 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.3 12.8 0.5 61.6 58.3 9.3 10.8 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.9 13.0 0.6 61.4 60.0 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.0 10.8 0.5 61.0 58.0 10.8 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.7 15.5 0.7 63.2 59.4 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.7 10.5 0.5 59.5 57.8 5.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.9 13.2 0.6 63.5 60.6 12.3 13.6 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.6 11.5 0.5 61.1 58.7 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.4 12.3 0.6 60.9 59.8 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.7 11.3 0.5 59.9 58.7 10.6 11.5 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.3 11.0 0.5 61.3 57.8 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.5 13.1 0.5 61.1 58.3 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.5 14.0 0.4 59.8 57.6 13.7 14.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.0 11.8 0.6 62.2 59.3 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.9 15.3 0.7 65.4 59.7 13.8 14.4 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.6 10.7 0.5 62.6 58.5 11.2 12.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.2 15.5 0.7 64.2 60.4 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.1 8.4 0.4 58.0 56.0 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.1 14.6 0.6 63.4 60.2 12.4 13.5 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.0 15.1 0.7 64.4 59.6 12.7 13.7 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.9 15.3 0.8 64.5 61.4 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.0 12.9 0.6 64.7 59.9 12.7 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.4 14.0 0.6 64.2 59.1 12.8 13.9 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.7 10.7 0.5 59.1 57.8 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.4 14.8 0.7 63.9 59.4 12.6 13.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.9 13.1 0.4 60.9 57.6 11.8 12.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.7 10.0 0.5 61.1 57.5 9.9 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.9 15.6 0.7 63.7 60.0 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------