***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.1 14.3 0.3 56.4 54.5 11.5 12.8 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.9 14.3 0.4 58.2 56.4 11.9 12.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.7 14.5 0.4 57.6 56.4 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.9 11.8 0.2 52.3 54.4 8.3 8.9 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.1 11.9 0.3 54.7 55.7 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.1 9.7 0.3 53.5 55.2 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.4 14.3 0.4 57.9 56.3 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 4.8 9.5 0.2 53.0 54.2 3.9 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.2 12.1 0.4 55.5 56.5 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.1 10.4 0.3 54.5 55.3 11.5 11.9 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.7 11.1 0.3 54.8 55.3 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.2 10.2 0.3 54.0 55.0 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.4 9.9 0.3 54.5 55.0 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.9 12.0 0.3 57.3 55.9 12.1 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.0 13.0 0.3 54.8 55.5 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.2 10.7 0.3 54.1 55.4 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.2 14.2 0.5 59.7 57.0 12.1 12.9 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 9.7 0.3 56.9 56.0 10.0 10.7 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.0 14.3 0.5 58.6 57.0 12.1 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.7 7.5 0.2 54.1 54.6 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.4 13.5 0.3 56.0 55.4 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.9 14.0 0.5 59.6 57.6 11.5 12.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.1 14.1 0.5 60.0 58.3 11.3 12.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.2 11.8 0.4 58.6 56.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.6 12.8 0.2 53.2 53.9 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.9 9.7 0.4 54.1 55.9 10.3 10.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.9 13.6 0.3 54.8 54.2 11.4 12.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.5 12.0 0.3 53.9 54.9 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 9.0 0.3 55.9 55.4 8.0 9.0 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 14.4 0.4 57.8 56.2 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------