***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.3 13.1 0.0 49.3 50.7 10.9 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.4 13.0 0.0 51.5 51.8 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.2 13.3 0.1 52.7 52.0 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.2 8.8 10.5 -0.1 49.7 48.8 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.3 11.1 0.0 50.8 50.6 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.0 9.9 8.7 0.2 52.9 51.7 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 13.0 0.0 51.9 51.3 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.6 8.6 0.1 50.7 51.1 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.1 11.3 0.2 52.2 53.3 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.1 11.9 9.6 0.1 50.8 51.7 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.9 12.0 10.6 0.2 52.8 51.8 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.6 9.5 0.1 51.4 51.2 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.2 9.4 0.1 49.8 49.2 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.5 11.0 0.1 51.7 51.7 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.5 12.1 0.1 51.4 51.9 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.1 10.0 0.1 50.7 50.1 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.0 12.7 0.1 52.7 52.0 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.5 8.9 0.1 52.3 51.4 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.6 13.0 0.2 53.2 53.3 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.2 6.8 0.0 49.6 49.7 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 12.0 11.8 12.5 0.1 50.6 51.5 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.1 12.7 0.1 54.4 52.8 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.5 13.0 0.3 56.5 55.9 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.0 11.0 0.2 53.9 52.7 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.4 12.0 0.0 47.6 49.8 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.4 8.7 0.1 50.4 50.2 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.3 12.6 0.0 47.5 49.9 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.9 10.7 10.9 0.0 50.4 49.5 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.0 8.1 0.1 52.2 51.3 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.9 13.2 0.0 51.9 51.7 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------