***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 12.1 12.4 12.9 0.8 63.7 65.5 10.7 11.9 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 13.0 13.2 12.6 0.9 67.9 67.2 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 13.8 14.1 12.9 0.7 65.0 64.8 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 9.1 9.3 10.0 0.5 61.2 60.4 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 9.8 11.3 10.9 0.6 63.4 62.3 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 9.4 9.7 8.1 0.3 61.4 59.5 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 47 53 100 12.8 13.2 12.6 0.9 68.1 66.9 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 4.6 4.5 7.6 0.0 54.5 53.2 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 11.2 12.1 11.0 0.6 66.8 64.9 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 11.4 11.5 8.8 0.2 59.7 57.3 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 11.0 11.4 10.3 0.4 64.0 61.2 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 9.4 9.4 8.8 0.2 58.1 56.7 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 48 52 100 11.1 11.1 9.5 0.5 69.6 65.5 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 49 51 100 12.3 12.7 10.7 0.6 66.7 64.8 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.3 11.9 0.8 69.8 68.7 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 11.6 12.0 10.0 0.5 65.1 63.5 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 12.2 13.4 12.2 0.8 65.9 66.1 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 9.7 9.8 8.2 0.1 56.3 55.2 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.3 12.6 0.9 70.3 68.7 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 5.7 5.7 6.1 -0.1 53.6 51.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 11.3 11.7 12.2 0.6 63.5 63.0 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 48 52 100 12.1 12.3 12.4 0.8 68.1 67.0 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 12.4 12.7 12.6 1.0 74.2 70.5 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.9 10.6 0.5 64.2 62.0 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 11.8 12.4 11.9 0.6 62.4 62.2 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.5 11.1 8.4 0.3 63.4 59.1 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 12.1 12.8 12.5 0.8 63.4 64.7 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 9.9 10.3 10.7 0.5 62.5 62.7 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 8.6 8.7 7.3 0.1 56.1 54.4 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 12.9 13.4 12.9 0.9 68.4 67.4 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------