***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 53.4 88.0 48.7 42.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 45.0 63.3 54.5 89.4 47.3 44.4 51.2 64.9 78.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 52.2 69.3 55.8 91.6 45.7 44.2 60.1 71.8 82.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 59.3 85.3 70.7 104.0 59.1 52.3 56.0 76.4 92.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 70.6 65.7 68.7 98.0 58.6 49.6 53.7 64.2 70.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 70.6 65.6 95.7 107.4 60.2 55.1 46.7 62.4 69.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 36.3 49.7 54.7 88.6 43.2 43.9 40.0 55.6 67.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 105.1 101.4 73.3 97.8 52.5 48.1 88.0 97.2 111.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 62.3 60.2 66.1 93.4 54.2 46.8 50.6 57.1 69.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 74.3 69.2 74.2 93.8 51.3 46.1 47.3 66.1 97.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 61.4 56.5 67.2 103.2 57.9 51.7 42.3 56.1 64.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 64.4 65.1 63.0 104.1 57.2 52.3 45.9 60.4 69.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 67.3 63.5 77.5 103.5 55.9 51.8 42.1 61.4 69.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 65.0 80.5 67.5 89.0 45.6 41.5 66.0 83.7 94.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 57.4 60.7 66.4 112.1 63.2 55.5 38.3 52.5 64.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 64.3 64.8 73.4 106.1 58.6 53.5 37.5 60.4 72.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 43.4 58.4 51.4 86.3 45.2 43.0 43.2 61.6 74.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 56.6 69.2 78.5 89.5 46.2 42.8 63.5 72.9 89.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 46.4 63.4 54.5 90.1 46.9 43.9 54.7 66.9 86.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 58.5 69.2 87.9 92.7 46.0 43.8 61.7 71.8 83.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 64.5 62.1 58.4 92.4 54.7 46.1 42.9 59.6 64.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 50.7 60.8 51.5 87.3 43.5 43.0 53.1 66.3 76.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 45.2 55.5 56.7 91.7 47.4 43.5 43.3 59.6 71.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 66.2 75.9 67.9 89.9 45.3 42.9 66.5 76.6 84.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 71.4 63.1 69.5 95.2 51.3 46.9 53.7 62.4 73.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 62.4 63.2 72.6 107.7 59.4 53.8 43.6 59.2 65.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 51.9 68.1 63.2 90.6 48.0 43.8 47.2 68.8 91.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 57.1 64.9 70.1 110.8 64.1 55.8 39.8 52.7 66.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 71.7 80.8 80.4 89.9 45.5 42.5 74.5 84.3 113.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 45.2 59.5 55.2 90.2 45.5 44.0 42.1 59.5 84.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------