***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 9.9 95.5 65.8 54.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.1 27.2 10.8 106.4 71.7 57.1 13.9 22.2 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.7 32.5 10.7 101.0 68.9 54.4 8.4 17.4 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.0 22.9 12.6 103.5 63.4 50.9 8.7 15.4 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.2 22.6 13.3 104.7 64.1 49.4 8.1 13.7 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.0 17.7 19.3 94.9 64.1 48.8 10.1 14.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.5 26.6 10.8 108.2 70.9 56.3 9.0 12.8 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.5 28.1 14.6 102.1 61.9 47.2 15.7 24.3 30.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 21.1 23.1 13.1 101.9 64.2 49.1 10.9 17.7 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.1 22.1 15.2 100.8 63.3 47.0 6.7 11.8 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.3 22.5 13.4 112.3 66.2 49.2 7.1 16.6 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.4 11.9 110.7 64.6 48.6 5.6 10.3 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.6 17.9 15.1 103.5 64.7 49.0 4.6 9.8 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.7 31.8 14.7 109.9 68.4 51.2 13.4 18.9 31.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.7 18.5 10.3 103.3 71.0 52.2 2.5 11.4 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.4 14.4 109.0 63.4 50.3 4.9 6.4 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.1 30.7 11.0 113.5 71.6 55.3 10.1 17.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 11.5 19.4 16.6 97.6 59.8 46.4 10.9 18.0 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 21.2 29.3 10.9 106.7 72.9 57.2 12.6 18.8 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.2 19.4 18.6 97.3 57.1 46.6 6.5 15.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 19.4 28.4 11.1 100.8 66.5 52.0 7.5 15.2 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 11.1 29.3 11.1 110.7 74.9 53.9 11.4 17.9 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 19.8 23.3 11.8 110.7 73.0 55.9 11.8 18.8 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.3 24.8 14.1 102.9 65.5 49.4 13.1 20.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.6 28.5 13.1 103.5 65.3 53.1 9.8 17.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.4 17.7 12.6 99.9 63.0 47.7 5.2 11.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.9 29.5 12.0 99.9 63.9 53.7 5.7 17.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.4 16.3 12.1 102.7 65.4 50.9 5.4 8.2 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 13.7 24.1 17.4 99.6 57.5 46.9 14.3 21.3 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.9 27.7 10.5 102.5 72.8 56.5 13.4 18.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------