***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.7 94.0 60.6 49.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.5 18.8 18.7 103.0 61.1 51.0 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 21.3 23.3 17.6 98.9 64.5 51.2 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.6 28.5 19.6 95.3 64.2 52.3 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.9 14.8 19.0 91.2 60.6 52.2 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.7 28.0 113.1 63.8 56.4 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.4 18.3 99.5 59.6 50.2 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 27.9 28.8 20.5 96.5 56.9 53.3 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.8 19.9 18.7 89.6 61.5 51.5 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 19.2 21.2 21.2 94.5 58.3 52.7 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.7 17.9 93.4 59.2 53.5 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.2 16.6 93.4 58.0 53.4 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.4 22.0 102.5 58.3 55.1 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.8 24.4 21.3 99.8 59.3 50.4 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.0 16.6 18.0 100.7 67.8 53.6 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.3 20.2 20.0 99.7 60.3 54.4 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.1 16.4 17.6 102.3 62.1 50.8 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.7 22.3 23.5 96.1 56.7 52.1 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.9 18.3 103.6 60.2 51.2 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.4 25.8 98.7 55.8 52.3 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.6 17.0 90.6 61.8 51.1 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.0 15.2 17.6 105.8 61.7 51.6 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.8 16.4 18.2 101.6 58.8 50.8 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.3 23.5 20.9 98.8 60.1 52.1 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 18.8 20.6 21.2 96.6 65.1 51.9 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 12.8 17.4 19.3 100.2 60.6 53.9 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.3 20.0 97.5 62.1 51.2 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.9 19.0 99.9 66.7 53.3 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.7 23.9 97.1 58.2 52.1 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 14.6 18.5 102.4 60.7 50.9 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------