***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.5 72.0 45.1 41.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.4 14.0 78.1 44.6 40.0 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 5.0 8.6 13.5 78.0 48.3 41.5 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.5 18.1 96.8 60.1 49.2 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 8.2 14.1 17.2 89.2 55.6 47.3 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.4 26.6 102.7 50.1 51.3 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.3 14.2 79.6 44.7 40.5 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.0 21.2 18.4 87.5 54.9 47.0 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.5 11.9 16.4 82.6 55.2 44.3 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.6 17.0 18.7 84.6 54.0 45.6 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.3 16.3 88.6 55.2 47.4 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.7 15.2 87.0 53.9 47.3 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.8 6.4 20.1 91.1 46.6 47.6 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.1 12.9 17.5 77.5 48.5 41.2 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 16.1 18.3 109.7 66.3 52.9 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.4 18.8 94.3 52.9 48.5 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.1 6.6 12.5 73.0 42.9 39.3 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 14.2 20.7 83.2 47.6 43.9 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 5.2 8.7 13.8 77.5 45.0 40.0 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.7 24.1 89.1 53.4 46.0 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 5.3 9.9 14.0 80.0 52.3 43.8 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.0 8.6 12.3 73.0 46.2 40.5 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.5 7.0 14.2 78.4 46.2 40.8 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.9 10.9 17.3 79.6 48.1 42.1 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.4 9.5 17.5 83.5 52.7 45.0 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.6 18.9 96.3 55.5 49.0 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.0 10.5 15.6 77.0 46.4 42.2 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.0 16.6 18.6 106.8 63.5 52.0 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.2 18.7 21.5 84.1 49.8 43.7 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.9 9.2 14.0 78.8 46.7 40.7 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------