***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 94.1 56.0 51.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 6.3 10.1 11.1 74.8 49.1 42.0 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.5 12.0 14.1 92.1 55.7 49.4 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 15.5 20.6 20.3 123.3 67.4 59.3 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 18.0 19.1 111.4 66.9 55.9 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 10.9 14.1 21.8 120.5 69.1 62.3 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.6 10.1 11.5 73.6 49.1 43.3 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.4 23.0 19.8 107.9 64.8 55.5 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.2 17.9 104.1 67.3 53.4 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 17.3 19.1 98.1 61.7 51.4 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.5 17.7 19.6 126.0 72.5 60.4 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 15.5 18.5 19.3 132.9 73.7 63.8 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 12.4 13.6 20.2 121.1 72.4 60.6 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 11.9 14.0 75.4 46.9 40.3 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.7 14.0 19.8 135.0 71.3 61.5 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.0 18.6 20.2 126.7 72.0 61.6 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.9 7.1 10.2 66.3 44.8 36.6 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 13.7 17.8 82.7 52.0 44.9 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.3 11.2 11.5 77.8 49.0 42.3 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 11.1 19.3 86.2 51.0 45.8 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.8 16.0 16.4 102.2 63.9 53.1 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 7.3 10.0 10.5 67.8 43.8 36.0 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.1 12.6 12.5 82.3 48.7 43.8 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.0 14.3 15.5 82.3 53.0 44.5 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.8 17.8 101.2 61.7 51.0 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.8 15.0 21.8 136.8 71.4 64.9 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.8 15.9 15.7 92.1 56.7 48.8 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.1 14.2 20.5 135.0 71.7 63.0 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.1 19.2 17.5 80.7 50.0 43.4 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.0 12.3 12.1 80.8 52.0 45.8 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------