***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 24.2 0.2 58.3 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 25.9 25.6 24.5 0.7 67.4 61.5 23.7 24.8 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 25.9 25.4 24.3 0.3 58.8 55.9 23.6 24.5 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 16.3 17.1 22.2 -0.1 44.7 50.6 16.0 17.4 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.9 24.6 22.3 0.0 45.1 51.4 24.0 24.9 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.1 20.1 -0.1 48.5 51.4 22.4 23.2 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.1 24.4 0.6 66.1 60.6 23.3 24.1 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.7 20.5 0.0 51.2 53.0 11.9 12.6 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 22.9 23.8 22.8 0.1 48.2 53.4 23.6 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 23.1 24.0 21.4 0.1 50.8 53.8 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 23.5 24.5 21.9 0.0 46.7 51.5 23.6 24.6 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 22.7 23.6 21.4 0.0 48.4 51.9 22.6 23.6 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 23.8 24.7 21.0 0.0 48.3 51.9 23.7 24.7 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 23.1 24.6 22.5 0.1 54.3 54.6 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 24.2 25.4 23.0 0.1 53.7 52.9 24.1 25.2 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 24.2 25.3 21.6 -0.1 44.3 50.6 24.2 25.3 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 25.4 25.4 24.4 0.9 69.9 64.1 23.2 23.7 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 24.8 23.9 20.6 0.2 55.0 55.3 22.8 23.5 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 25.0 25.0 24.5 0.6 64.8 60.4 23.4 23.9 25.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 17.9 19.3 18.3 0.2 56.5 55.0 18.0 18.7 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 23.3 24.2 23.6 0.0 48.5 53.0 23.6 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 26.0 25.4 24.2 0.8 66.1 62.7 23.6 24.7 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.6 25.3 24.2 0.4 60.4 57.9 23.8 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 22.8 24.2 22.4 0.1 55.3 54.8 23.2 23.9 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 23.5 24.5 22.6 0.0 48.2 53.0 23.4 24.6 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.3 24.3 20.7 0.0 53.1 52.9 23.2 24.3 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 23.3 25.0 23.3 0.2 54.2 54.8 23.2 24.3 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 24.2 24.6 22.5 -0.1 45.4 50.1 24.1 25.4 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 17.8 18.7 19.6 0.2 55.9 55.4 17.8 18.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 25.7 25.3 24.5 0.5 66.1 59.4 23.5 24.5 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------