***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 26.2 1.1 69.3 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 27.3 27.9 26.5 1.4 69.6 62.2 24.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 27.5 27.3 26.3 1.2 68.7 61.1 24.1 26.3 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.3 20.4 24.5 1.0 64.8 60.6 16.5 18.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 27.1 28.0 24.5 1.0 66.4 61.2 25.0 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.2 26.1 22.3 1.2 67.6 63.0 23.6 24.7 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 26.7 27.3 26.3 1.3 70.7 62.4 23.9 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.5 22.7 1.1 70.9 62.1 12.7 14.1 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 27.3 27.0 24.9 1.1 69.3 62.0 24.2 26.4 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 27.2 27.3 23.5 1.1 70.2 62.1 24.3 26.1 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 27.5 27.9 24.1 1.1 70.3 62.2 25.0 26.4 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 26.4 26.5 23.7 1.2 71.1 62.4 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 27.6 27.9 23.2 1.2 69.3 62.5 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 24.0 27.3 24.4 0.9 62.2 58.1 24.5 25.7 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 28.0 28.2 25.2 1.1 71.0 62.5 24.6 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 27.9 28.2 23.7 1.1 69.1 61.7 25.7 27.2 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 26.7 26.9 26.2 1.4 70.2 62.9 23.4 25.1 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 26.9 26.7 22.6 1.1 68.0 61.1 23.6 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 26.8 26.8 26.5 1.3 68.9 61.6 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 21.6 21.9 20.3 1.0 68.2 60.4 19.3 20.3 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 27.5 27.1 25.7 1.1 68.1 61.3 24.0 26.4 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 27.4 27.0 26.1 1.3 68.4 61.5 24.1 25.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 27.1 27.3 26.2 1.2 67.5 60.3 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 26.8 26.6 24.4 1.0 67.0 60.3 24.1 25.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 27.4 27.0 24.6 1.0 66.7 60.7 24.1 26.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 26.9 27.0 23.1 1.2 67.2 63.1 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 27.1 27.1 25.3 1.0 68.6 61.0 23.9 25.9 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 27.3 28.2 24.8 1.0 67.9 61.0 24.7 26.9 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 21.7 21.5 21.4 1.0 65.9 60.2 19.0 20.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 27.2 27.6 26.5 1.3 69.6 61.9 23.9 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------