***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 24.9 0.8 61.9 58.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 26.0 25.1 1.2 67.3 61.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.6 24.9 0.9 61.7 58.7 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.5 18.2 23.0 0.5 58.9 55.3 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.6 23.0 0.6 59.1 56.6 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.9 20.6 0.4 60.1 54.3 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.0 25.0 1.1 65.6 61.3 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.3 21.2 0.7 62.5 57.8 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.2 23.4 0.7 59.6 57.5 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.9 22.0 0.7 61.6 57.7 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.4 22.5 0.6 60.0 56.6 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.7 22.1 0.6 62.5 57.3 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.6 21.5 0.5 62.5 56.1 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.4 25.0 23.1 0.8 59.7 57.7 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 23.8 25.8 23.5 0.5 60.1 55.8 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.2 22.1 0.5 62.2 55.6 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.0 25.0 1.4 68.1 63.5 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.3 21.2 0.8 62.7 58.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.1 25.2 1.1 65.3 61.0 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 19.2 19.5 18.9 0.8 62.9 59.5 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.0 25.3 24.2 0.7 58.9 57.4 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.6 24.8 1.3 65.6 62.4 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.2 24.8 1.0 61.3 59.6 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.8 23.0 0.8 60.1 57.6 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.5 23.2 0.6 61.1 57.2 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.0 21.3 0.5 60.1 56.3 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.7 24.0 0.7 61.3 58.2 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 24.0 26.1 23.2 0.5 59.3 54.9 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.1 20.1 0.8 62.3 58.6 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.4 25.2 1.1 65.7 60.6 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------