***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 24.5 1.4 73.7 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 25.9 26.4 24.9 2.0 82.1 67.5 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 25.5 25.8 24.6 1.5 78.3 62.7 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 18.3 18.3 22.5 1.0 70.2 60.0 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 25.8 26.0 22.5 1.0 70.2 59.5 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.9 20.4 1.0 69.8 60.7 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 25.3 25.8 24.8 1.9 80.9 67.2 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.9 13.7 20.6 1.1 72.1 59.6 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 25.2 25.4 22.9 1.1 70.1 60.0 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 21.9 25.4 21.5 1.1 73.1 59.6 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 22.3 25.5 22.0 1.0 71.3 59.5 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.1 24.0 21.5 1.0 70.4 60.1 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.2 21.1 1.0 69.2 60.7 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 25.7 26.4 22.7 1.4 78.9 60.5 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 26.0 26.0 23.1 1.2 72.4 62.4 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 25.7 26.2 21.6 1.0 69.2 60.0 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 25.0 25.7 24.8 2.3 83.4 69.7 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.6 25.1 20.8 1.3 75.1 59.9 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 25.4 26.1 24.9 2.0 81.7 66.5 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 20.0 20.5 18.4 1.2 74.4 60.4 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.4 23.8 1.2 72.6 60.6 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 25.8 26.4 24.6 2.2 82.8 68.4 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 25.9 26.5 24.5 1.7 79.8 64.3 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.8 25.4 22.6 1.3 76.7 60.6 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.4 22.8 1.2 73.1 61.5 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 24.2 24.0 20.9 1.0 67.9 60.9 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 25.5 25.5 23.6 1.4 73.6 62.7 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 25.8 26.2 22.7 1.0 69.7 60.3 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.9 20.3 19.7 1.3 75.2 59.8 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 26.0 26.6 24.9 1.8 80.1 65.9 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------