***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.2 -2.5 21.2 24.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 22.1 21.9 21.6 -1.8 28.8 33.0 22.8 24.9 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 21.5 21.5 21.3 -2.5 21.3 25.6 22.8 24.9 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 13.7 13.2 18.6 -2.7 18.3 21.7 15.5 16.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 21.3 21.3 19.4 -2.7 17.7 21.8 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 18.9 17.8 17.1 -2.8 14.9 20.7 21.7 23.5 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 21.4 22.6 21.4 -1.9 28.6 31.5 22.8 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 8.8 7.8 17.3 -2.7 17.1 21.2 11.6 13.0 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 20.6 20.4 20.3 -2.7 18.2 22.3 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 20.5 20.2 18.5 -2.7 18.1 22.7 22.4 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 20.4 19.6 19.1 -2.8 16.6 20.9 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 18.7 17.7 18.1 -2.8 15.7 20.2 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 20.4 19.4 18.4 -2.7 15.3 21.4 23.3 24.5 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 20.9 19.5 19.9 -2.5 17.6 26.4 22.3 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 21.6 21.2 20.3 -2.6 18.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 21.2 20.2 18.8 -2.8 15.6 21.0 23.3 24.7 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 21.6 22.4 21.4 -1.5 31.2 36.1 22.5 23.8 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 19.9 19.9 17.7 -2.5 19.6 25.1 21.5 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 21.5 21.8 21.6 -1.9 27.0 31.9 22.3 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 14.9 16.1 15.6 -2.4 21.4 25.7 17.7 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 21.0 21.1 20.9 -2.8 19.6 22.1 22.3 24.4 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.3 21.3 21.3 -1.6 27.4 35.3 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 21.4 21.4 21.3 -2.2 24.0 29.3 22.6 24.8 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 20.1 19.2 19.6 -2.6 18.5 24.8 21.8 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 21.2 21.1 19.8 -2.7 19.1 22.9 22.4 24.5 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 20.0 19.4 17.6 -2.6 17.5 22.4 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 21.5 21.6 20.5 -2.5 20.3 24.3 22.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 21.0 20.4 19.3 -2.8 17.4 21.3 22.3 24.4 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 14.8 14.6 16.9 -2.4 20.4 26.0 17.0 18.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.6 22.0 21.6 -2.0 25.7 30.2 22.4 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------