***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 14.1 0.1 58.1 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.9 12.9 14.3 0.4 65.8 60.0 12.0 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.6 14.0 0.1 57.8 54.4 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.4 12.0 0.0 52.9 50.8 8.5 9.3 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.2 11.9 0.0 54.2 50.9 10.6 11.2 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.1 60.6 56.0 9.4 9.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.8 14.3 0.3 62.7 59.5 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.9 9.9 0.1 60.4 54.6 4.2 4.8 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.5 12.2 0.1 60.6 53.4 11.5 11.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.2 10.7 0.1 61.3 53.5 11.4 11.7 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.7 11.3 0.1 57.8 52.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.9 10.8 0.1 58.1 54.2 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.3 10.5 0.1 57.7 52.9 10.6 11.2 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.9 12.4 12.2 0.0 51.6 50.4 12.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.0 12.9 0.2 63.9 57.3 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.4 11.1 0.0 58.1 52.1 11.7 12.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.6 14.1 0.5 68.5 61.5 12.3 12.7 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.6 10.0 0.1 60.3 52.4 9.9 10.3 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.0 14.2 0.3 64.3 58.8 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.5 8.0 0.1 58.3 54.0 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.2 13.3 0.0 56.9 51.8 11.5 11.9 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.4 13.9 0.4 65.1 59.4 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.7 13.8 0.2 60.7 56.1 11.6 12.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 11.3 12.0 11.9 0.0 59.3 52.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.8 12.7 0.0 56.4 51.9 11.8 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.0 10.5 0.1 60.3 54.3 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.7 13.4 0.1 57.7 53.4 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.8 12.3 0.0 56.9 51.9 10.4 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.4 9.2 0.1 59.5 52.5 8.2 9.0 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.1 14.3 0.3 62.0 58.2 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------