***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 15.9 1.0 68.5 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.1 16.1 1.1 72.7 64.5 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.4 15.8 1.0 68.7 63.9 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.7 13.9 0.8 68.2 62.8 9.3 10.8 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.0 13.7 0.8 68.2 63.5 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.1 11.9 0.8 66.9 63.3 10.8 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.4 15.0 16.0 1.1 71.5 64.3 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.1 11.8 0.8 71.3 63.4 5.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 14.0 14.1 14.1 0.9 71.3 64.4 12.3 13.6 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.8 12.5 0.9 71.9 63.8 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 13.7 13.7 13.2 0.9 68.0 64.2 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.1 11.9 12.8 0.8 69.3 64.3 10.6 11.5 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.4 12.4 0.9 66.8 64.8 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.6 13.9 0.7 66.4 60.6 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.0 14.7 14.6 0.9 70.5 64.4 13.7 14.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.1 13.0 0.8 66.3 63.9 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.3 15.8 1.1 71.0 64.6 13.8 14.4 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.0 12.8 11.8 0.8 71.4 63.2 11.2 12.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 14.6 14.8 16.0 1.1 73.0 64.4 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 8.5 8.6 9.9 0.8 69.2 62.9 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 14.2 14.4 15.2 0.9 69.1 63.6 12.4 13.5 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.2 15.8 1.1 70.7 63.4 12.7 13.7 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.2 15.7 1.0 71.3 63.7 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.0 13.8 0.8 69.4 62.6 12.7 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.5 14.5 0.9 72.0 64.6 12.8 13.9 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.8 12.6 0.9 70.7 64.5 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.7 15.1 0.9 71.1 64.0 12.6 13.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.1 14.2 0.7 67.1 62.3 11.8 12.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 11.1 10.8 11.0 0.8 69.5 62.8 9.9 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.1 15.3 16.1 1.1 71.2 64.3 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------