***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.8 0.6 63.3 57.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.1 15.1 0.9 72.5 61.5 11.9 12.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.8 14.7 0.7 62.5 59.3 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.9 12.7 0.4 52.9 56.0 8.3 8.9 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.1 12.4 0.4 56.3 56.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.1 10.5 0.4 52.7 56.6 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.8 15.0 0.9 71.9 60.6 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.0 10.5 0.6 61.1 60.7 3.9 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.5 12.8 0.5 61.5 57.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.3 11.3 0.5 59.9 59.2 11.5 11.9 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.9 11.8 0.5 58.5 58.4 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.3 11.4 0.5 60.7 60.0 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.4 11.0 0.4 57.8 57.0 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.2 12.8 0.6 64.9 59.7 12.1 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.1 13.5 0.5 61.0 58.9 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.2 11.6 0.4 57.2 57.3 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.0 14.9 1.0 72.2 61.7 12.1 12.9 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.9 10.7 0.6 61.6 59.3 10.0 10.7 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.8 15.0 0.9 71.0 61.9 12.1 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.1 8.7 0.6 62.5 60.6 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.5 13.9 0.5 60.8 56.8 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.1 14.8 1.0 69.7 61.8 11.5 12.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.3 14.6 0.8 68.7 61.8 11.3 12.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.6 12.6 0.6 62.4 59.4 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.8 13.3 0.4 56.8 55.6 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.1 11.2 0.5 65.9 59.4 10.3 10.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.0 14.1 0.5 60.2 56.4 11.4 12.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.5 12.9 0.4 54.8 57.0 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.0 9.9 0.6 61.5 59.2 8.0 9.0 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.7 15.1 0.9 69.6 60.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------