***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 14.6 1.0 72.0 64.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.5 14.8 1.3 77.9 67.5 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.4 14.5 1.1 73.9 66.2 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 10.0 10.1 12.4 0.8 68.6 65.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.2 12.2 0.8 68.7 64.9 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.9 10.5 0.9 74.3 67.8 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.7 14.8 1.3 75.4 67.3 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 5.7 6.1 10.5 1.0 75.1 67.1 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.2 12.7 0.9 72.4 66.1 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 12.7 13.0 11.2 1.0 72.9 66.9 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.6 11.7 0.9 71.8 66.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.2 11.3 0.9 74.5 66.6 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.2 10.8 0.8 73.5 65.6 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.3 12.6 1.0 71.3 65.4 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 13.6 13.8 13.2 1.1 76.1 69.4 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.9 12.9 11.4 0.8 70.3 65.8 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.7 14.1 14.6 1.4 79.9 67.9 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.3 11.5 10.6 1.0 71.7 67.5 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.9 14.7 1.3 76.4 67.1 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 7.7 8.2 8.7 1.1 75.6 67.1 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.1 13.7 0.9 71.2 65.2 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.2 14.4 1.3 77.5 66.8 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.3 14.3 1.1 73.8 66.3 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.1 12.5 1.0 71.8 66.7 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.5 13.1 0.9 68.0 64.5 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.4 10.9 0.8 68.3 64.7 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.3 13.8 0.9 69.6 64.4 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.7 12.7 0.9 71.6 66.4 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.0 9.8 1.1 72.9 67.8 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.7 14.9 1.2 75.4 66.9 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------