***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 -2.2 17.5 18.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 9.6 9.3 11.1 -1.8 18.2 20.4 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 10.9 10.4 10.9 -2.2 14.5 15.3 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 5.7 5.1 8.9 -2.0 13.4 17.1 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 8.5 8.0 9.0 -2.1 11.5 14.8 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 7.3 7.0 7.3 -1.5 18.5 23.8 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 9.6 9.3 11.3 -1.8 19.9 21.1 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 1.6 0.6 6.8 -1.9 12.7 18.0 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 9.1 8.6 9.4 -2.1 11.4 14.6 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 9.0 8.6 7.7 -2.0 11.6 15.1 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 9.1 8.8 8.4 -2.0 12.2 15.6 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 7.1 6.5 7.6 -1.9 12.8 18.0 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 8.4 8.1 7.7 -1.8 14.6 17.8 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 9.9 8.9 9.2 -2.4 7.9 11.3 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 10.1 9.8 10.5 -1.8 16.2 20.5 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 9.4 8.9 8.3 -1.9 13.3 16.9 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 10.2 10.1 10.9 -1.7 20.8 22.1 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 7.6 6.8 6.8 -2.2 10.0 12.9 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 9.6 9.3 11.0 -2.0 16.2 18.6 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 3.6 3.2 4.7 -2.0 10.6 16.7 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 8.8 8.3 10.5 -2.3 11.5 13.8 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 9.5 9.2 10.8 -1.9 17.6 19.9 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 9.7 8.9 10.6 -2.1 13.6 15.4 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 9.4 9.0 8.9 -2.3 9.4 12.0 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 9.3 9.0 10.2 -2.2 15.8 17.4 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 8.3 7.8 7.3 -1.8 16.7 21.1 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 9.6 9.4 10.7 -2.1 17.0 18.2 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 8.4 8.0 9.5 -2.0 13.3 17.7 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 5.8 4.6 6.0 -2.1 9.6 13.9 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 9.7 9.3 11.3 -1.9 17.6 19.4 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------