***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 75.8 77.6 87.9 124.5 70.9 66.0 55.0 64.9 74.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 78.2 84.8 81.1 125.6 70.9 66.2 47.0 64.1 76.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 95.1 91.1 86.9 124.0 69.5 66.0 52.1 69.4 82.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 93.8 106.3 99.5 137.5 79.1 70.4 55.9 73.7 91.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 68.1 75.6 91.5 128.5 73.6 66.1 50.6 64.8 70.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 68.8 82.5 96.3 117.9 70.5 59.5 45.1 60.4 72.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 66.2 71.7 78.3 122.9 71.0 65.5 43.8 52.5 67.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 122.7 137.4 104.8 128.8 77.0 68.0 86.3 92.3 109.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 72.3 74.8 94.8 126.6 75.9 66.6 53.8 61.5 69.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 89.4 101.7 108.6 127.3 76.9 67.5 47.3 69.6 92.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 68.5 73.7 90.2 130.0 75.6 67.6 45.1 54.8 64.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 74.0 80.9 90.2 131.2 77.0 67.5 45.9 61.1 72.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 67.7 81.3 92.3 123.5 72.6 62.9 38.3 63.7 68.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 115.0 129.8 117.9 131.4 76.5 70.7 65.6 83.7 94.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 66.7 76.0 92.0 143.8 80.3 71.4 41.8 49.8 63.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 62.2 74.0 88.7 126.5 72.3 64.9 38.5 58.5 73.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 60.7 73.9 79.3 125.0 69.4 65.4 42.9 56.6 71.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 89.8 97.3 115.6 127.7 74.9 67.8 62.1 75.9 89.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 90.4 98.3 85.2 128.1 72.5 67.3 51.0 63.2 91.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 74.3 87.8 106.6 121.7 71.1 64.8 63.1 70.3 83.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 70.3 69.2 91.1 126.3 73.4 66.2 42.8 58.3 62.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 77.1 78.7 90.5 134.6 74.3 69.1 49.5 63.2 69.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 67.6 73.0 89.6 128.4 73.8 68.5 42.3 53.3 65.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 88.8 87.1 105.7 127.5 74.6 68.7 64.2 77.1 82.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 79.6 77.4 96.8 124.3 71.7 65.2 51.3 62.7 73.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 67.9 73.3 91.1 133.5 76.5 67.8 43.5 59.2 66.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 83.3 90.4 93.5 123.1 70.9 65.5 51.7 64.9 83.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 66.2 72.3 96.9 140.0 79.7 70.6 41.7 54.1 64.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 111.5 123.7 113.6 125.3 73.9 66.8 72.5 84.8 112.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 81.1 83.0 82.1 124.6 70.2 66.1 40.2 59.5 74.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------