***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.9 30.4 19.5 117.3 65.1 54.7 10.5 18.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.0 27.1 17.0 111.5 65.2 54.5 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.8 24.7 18.8 114.3 65.5 54.6 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.7 27.7 17.8 108.0 63.2 50.6 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 21.5 27.3 17.4 107.6 64.7 51.7 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.2 20.8 102.8 59.2 50.4 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 20.1 25.0 17.5 117.3 67.4 55.1 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.3 32.8 22.9 119.2 66.6 54.1 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.1 24.5 18.9 109.8 65.2 53.1 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.6 24.4 23.5 117.6 67.2 54.6 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.3 22.0 17.2 113.3 65.1 53.2 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.0 16.3 19.1 119.0 67.7 52.9 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.4 19.1 19.7 110.5 63.3 52.2 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.6 31.8 22.7 107.9 65.3 54.5 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.8 17.9 16.3 109.8 66.6 50.4 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.8 12.1 17.3 105.4 62.3 50.3 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 20.5 25.2 15.8 105.6 64.6 54.0 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.6 29.2 25.9 119.8 69.6 55.3 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.1 25.1 17.3 109.6 64.3 54.5 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.7 24.1 25.0 118.2 67.1 54.8 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 19.9 30.8 18.6 112.1 66.0 54.0 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.3 30.3 17.2 108.4 65.6 55.5 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 20.5 23.4 17.4 106.5 63.1 54.1 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 25.3 27.9 22.2 116.2 67.9 55.0 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.3 28.0 19.7 113.4 67.3 54.0 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.1 19.4 19.0 125.4 69.2 54.4 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.9 32.3 20.2 117.2 66.0 55.5 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.0 16.2 18.2 110.4 64.9 50.3 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 28.3 25.7 118.5 68.6 55.7 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.7 25.4 17.8 113.5 64.3 54.5 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------