***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.4 16.5 18.2 109.2 61.0 53.7 5.9 13.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.2 15.4 108.2 60.4 52.5 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.0 21.1 17.2 105.5 62.0 53.1 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.5 23.1 20.1 113.2 66.7 52.4 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.3 18.9 111.7 66.1 52.0 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 9.4 17.7 24.7 117.2 64.6 52.6 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.4 14.5 101.0 58.1 52.0 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 15.1 28.3 20.3 108.1 61.9 49.9 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.8 18.0 19.1 106.3 66.5 51.0 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.7 24.9 21.1 105.3 62.0 49.4 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.5 17.7 17.3 110.7 65.5 52.4 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.3 16.8 17.7 108.1 64.1 50.4 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.3 16.8 21.3 114.3 66.6 52.3 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 8.4 32.1 23.4 113.9 66.9 52.8 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.7 18.7 19.0 120.7 70.2 54.6 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.0 18.7 19.4 111.5 66.5 52.3 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.8 15.6 14.9 104.8 60.2 50.9 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 11.8 19.5 23.5 108.0 63.7 50.5 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.6 16.8 115.1 64.3 53.9 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.5 21.8 22.5 108.9 62.4 51.3 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.3 18.7 108.1 65.0 52.9 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.1 14.8 17.6 118.1 65.4 52.8 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.4 20.7 17.7 117.1 67.3 54.6 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.1 23.6 21.1 106.9 62.4 52.3 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.0 19.7 20.9 111.3 64.0 54.0 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.9 19.1 21.0 124.8 70.5 54.5 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.5 19.6 108.1 61.8 53.8 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.8 17.1 20.4 115.8 68.8 52.4 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 12.7 29.6 23.1 106.3 61.7 50.4 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.9 15.2 103.3 60.3 52.1 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------