***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.9 18.1 109.6 60.7 53.9 12.4 14.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.2 10.9 15.3 93.4 58.0 51.0 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 16.3 94.0 56.6 49.1 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.5 24.3 17.2 99.0 61.7 51.3 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.7 18.5 16.4 94.0 58.6 49.4 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.3 13.9 15.4 82.4 52.8 45.7 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.2 14.6 90.7 56.0 49.6 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 13.8 19.7 12.6 68.8 48.2 40.1 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.1 17.8 98.2 59.0 50.8 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.5 15.0 15.3 78.6 52.0 43.9 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.9 12.5 14.1 79.7 50.5 44.9 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.1 14.8 11.6 70.5 48.4 40.6 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.4 9.7 14.4 79.4 54.6 46.5 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 8.4 15.1 17.9 83.0 52.4 45.1 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 19.3 18.0 108.9 66.7 55.7 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.3 12.9 14.4 83.4 55.4 47.1 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.1 9.1 15.9 100.6 60.1 52.7 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 12.5 18.0 88.8 55.7 47.9 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 14.7 15.7 94.7 58.9 51.6 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 15.4 16.1 81.3 52.3 45.1 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.5 15.3 17.5 102.4 59.8 51.5 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.7 17.2 100.3 61.0 52.2 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.4 16.6 98.0 60.6 53.4 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.2 14.6 18.0 91.4 54.8 48.7 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.1 16.6 20.7 106.4 62.8 53.1 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 7.3 9.0 11.3 66.3 44.7 38.5 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.1 18.4 20.9 110.4 62.6 54.1 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.4 17.3 16.0 97.6 62.8 51.6 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.3 22.8 17.1 81.9 50.9 44.8 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.4 14.7 88.8 55.0 48.5 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------