***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 20.5 26.6 32.1 154.4 82.1 76.8 5.9 7.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 18.9 21.4 33.3 178.8 83.3 79.8 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 24.8 38.8 34.6 173.1 84.7 80.1 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 24.7 36.8 44.4 214.4 90.5 85.5 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 20.0 26.9 38.8 187.9 89.1 82.6 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 13.3 17.5 35.4 162.9 82.4 75.6 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 15.2 18.9 31.6 173.3 83.3 78.0 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 29.1 40.4 49.0 195.7 90.9 86.7 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 18.6 22.4 38.9 181.2 86.4 81.8 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 21.3 31.7 48.7 187.3 88.2 84.9 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 16.7 23.7 41.5 200.1 89.5 84.6 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 16.8 27.5 41.8 209.5 91.3 86.3 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 16.3 24.1 37.0 181.8 87.1 80.6 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 25.4 57.5 53.9 202.9 89.6 85.5 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 12.9 18.3 38.7 229.5 89.7 85.5 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 13.8 26.5 37.7 196.4 88.6 83.4 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 16.6 21.8 32.7 177.5 84.4 78.1 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 25.2 33.4 48.2 179.7 87.5 83.9 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 18.3 25.7 35.4 180.9 83.6 80.9 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 24.0 42.2 43.0 167.1 86.1 81.5 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 16.9 21.0 36.3 171.8 84.3 79.8 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 21.0 28.2 38.4 199.6 87.0 82.1 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 17.7 21.6 37.9 177.4 84.3 80.7 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 22.0 34.0 44.4 182.7 87.7 83.5 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 19.0 27.3 35.4 159.3 82.5 76.3 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 16.8 31.6 39.9 206.0 88.7 84.7 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 16.5 20.6 32.8 151.3 80.0 75.0 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 13.2 21.1 42.4 226.5 91.0 86.9 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 25.4 39.4 47.7 181.7 88.3 84.5 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 18.4 21.6 34.5 181.4 85.0 80.6 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------