***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.3 23.5 0.2 55.4 55.5 23.4 24.0 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 24.8 25.2 23.4 0.2 56.7 55.0 23.8 24.6 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.0 23.7 0.3 57.1 56.1 23.6 24.3 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.9 21.2 0.4 61.1 58.3 16.0 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.2 24.9 21.9 0.3 57.9 55.9 23.8 24.8 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 24.2 24.2 20.1 0.8 68.5 63.0 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 24.4 24.7 23.4 0.2 57.7 56.0 23.3 24.1 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.9 20.0 0.3 55.8 55.2 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.6 22.4 0.3 58.1 56.2 23.4 23.8 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.3 20.9 0.3 57.0 55.6 23.1 23.9 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.6 22.0 0.4 60.6 57.8 23.7 24.4 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.0 21.3 0.5 62.3 59.0 22.5 23.5 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.1 21.2 0.6 64.9 59.9 23.5 24.5 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.5 24.0 21.6 -0.2 50.5 49.1 23.5 24.0 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 25.9 26.2 23.1 0.6 67.7 62.2 23.8 24.9 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.9 21.7 0.7 66.2 60.9 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 23.8 24.7 23.2 0.2 57.3 55.3 23.1 23.4 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.5 20.1 0.2 54.1 53.8 22.8 23.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.7 23.4 0.2 56.5 54.5 23.3 23.9 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.8 17.7 0.1 51.2 52.0 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.5 23.2 0.2 54.7 54.4 23.3 24.0 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 24.8 24.6 22.8 0.0 51.4 51.2 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.9 23.3 0.2 56.4 54.3 23.7 24.4 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.0 21.8 0.1 53.5 52.7 23.2 23.7 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.6 22.0 0.1 53.5 54.0 23.3 24.4 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 24.9 25.0 20.7 0.8 69.9 62.9 23.1 24.0 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.5 25.0 22.8 0.2 55.3 55.1 22.9 24.2 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 25.9 25.7 22.0 0.6 67.2 61.3 23.8 25.2 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.6 19.1 0.1 51.1 52.3 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.6 23.5 0.2 56.4 55.6 23.3 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------