***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 25.2 25.9 25.6 0.6 62.0 56.2 23.4 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.5 25.7 0.7 62.2 57.1 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.8 25.9 0.7 63.5 57.4 24.2 25.4 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.6 19.0 23.7 0.8 62.8 58.8 16.1 18.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 24.2 26.7 23.8 0.5 60.6 55.3 24.9 26.0 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.3 21.7 1.0 65.0 60.1 23.4 24.2 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.7 25.7 0.7 60.4 57.5 23.5 24.7 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.9 22.0 0.5 59.3 54.5 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 23.5 26.3 24.0 0.5 60.5 54.5 24.2 25.3 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 25.7 25.8 22.7 0.5 59.8 54.2 24.1 25.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.3 23.6 0.7 61.1 56.1 24.8 25.6 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.1 23.4 0.8 61.7 57.2 23.7 24.6 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.5 22.5 0.8 61.9 57.4 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.8 23.3 0.0 52.7 51.3 23.8 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 27.7 27.6 24.9 1.2 69.3 62.7 24.3 26.8 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.8 27.0 23.3 0.9 63.1 58.6 25.4 26.3 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.3 25.6 0.7 61.2 57.5 23.2 24.6 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.3 22.0 0.4 57.6 53.5 23.4 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.5 26.4 25.7 0.6 63.3 56.4 23.2 25.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.5 20.1 19.4 0.2 54.6 51.8 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 23.8 26.1 24.9 0.5 58.8 55.0 23.9 25.7 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.8 25.0 0.3 59.7 54.2 23.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.0 26.5 25.5 0.6 62.7 55.7 23.8 25.5 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.5 23.6 0.3 57.0 53.8 23.7 25.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 24.0 26.2 23.8 0.4 57.9 55.0 24.0 25.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.0 22.9 1.2 68.6 61.0 24.1 25.3 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.8 25.6 24.7 0.5 59.0 55.5 23.3 25.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 27.7 27.8 24.1 1.1 66.1 60.9 25.1 26.7 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.2 20.0 21.0 0.2 55.0 52.1 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.3 25.7 0.7 62.6 57.3 23.6 25.4 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------