***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 25.0 25.0 24.5 0.7 62.5 57.4 23.6 24.5 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 25.3 25.9 24.5 0.9 63.5 58.9 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 25.3 25.4 24.8 0.9 61.3 58.1 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.7 22.5 0.9 64.4 57.9 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.7 22.8 0.8 61.8 56.8 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.1 20.8 1.2 66.4 60.3 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 24.7 25.4 24.6 0.9 62.5 59.0 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.6 21.2 0.9 62.6 57.5 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.2 23.1 0.8 62.2 56.9 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.9 21.9 0.9 63.1 57.3 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.3 22.7 1.0 63.5 58.3 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.9 24.3 22.5 1.1 65.1 59.5 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.4 21.7 1.1 64.1 59.5 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.3 22.6 0.6 59.4 55.8 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.9 23.5 1.1 68.6 60.3 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.2 22.4 1.1 65.8 59.8 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 24.4 24.8 24.4 0.9 64.0 59.7 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.5 21.3 0.9 63.0 57.3 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.4 24.6 0.9 63.2 58.6 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.1 18.8 0.8 59.5 56.4 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.0 25.2 23.9 0.7 60.5 56.3 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 24.9 25.3 24.0 0.7 62.3 58.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 25.3 25.3 24.5 0.9 63.1 58.4 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.7 22.8 0.8 61.0 56.8 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.3 25.4 22.7 0.6 61.0 55.7 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 25.2 25.3 22.0 1.6 69.7 63.2 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.8 25.1 23.7 0.7 61.9 57.0 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.8 26.2 22.9 1.1 67.7 59.6 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.9 19.5 20.3 0.8 60.3 56.6 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 25.1 25.6 24.6 0.8 62.7 58.5 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------