***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 25.8 26.2 25.1 2.3 77.5 73.3 22.6 24.2 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 25.3 25.5 24.7 2.0 72.8 70.1 23.3 24.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 25.4 25.7 25.4 2.4 77.4 74.3 22.8 24.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 18.3 18.9 22.8 2.6 81.5 76.7 15.1 16.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 25.7 26.3 24.0 2.8 81.8 77.1 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 24.3 25.8 22.5 3.6 90.4 81.7 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 24.9 25.4 24.7 2.0 73.1 70.1 22.8 23.7 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 13.7 14.8 22.2 3.0 83.8 77.6 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 25.3 25.9 24.6 2.8 82.0 77.5 21.4 24.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 25.0 25.6 23.1 3.0 83.0 77.6 21.8 24.1 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 25.1 26.0 24.4 3.1 84.3 78.6 22.2 24.2 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 23.9 24.9 23.5 3.2 86.5 79.5 21.3 22.7 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 25.1 26.6 23.7 3.3 86.4 79.9 22.5 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 25.5 25.7 23.7 2.2 73.7 72.0 22.4 24.5 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 26.0 26.7 24.7 2.7 82.0 76.8 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 25.9 27.1 24.0 3.3 86.4 79.9 23.0 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.7 25.0 24.4 1.9 72.8 69.4 22.9 23.6 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 24.3 25.0 22.3 2.8 81.7 76.0 21.5 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 25.0 25.1 24.9 2.1 73.5 71.1 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 19.6 20.5 20.1 2.8 81.5 75.4 16.9 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 25.5 25.8 25.2 2.6 78.4 75.5 22.3 24.2 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.2 24.1 1.8 71.7 68.7 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 25.4 25.5 25.0 2.2 74.3 72.8 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 24.9 25.3 24.0 2.5 78.2 74.5 21.6 23.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 25.5 25.8 23.9 2.3 76.1 73.5 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 24.3 25.5 22.8 3.5 89.5 81.0 21.8 23.0 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 25.1 25.3 24.4 2.2 75.7 72.6 22.8 23.8 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 25.9 26.9 23.8 2.9 84.1 78.3 22.3 23.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 19.6 20.3 21.5 2.8 80.4 75.3 16.9 18.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 25.5 25.7 25.0 2.1 73.9 71.3 23.1 24.0 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------