***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 20.5 20.2 18.9 -2.7 18.7 20.1 23.0 24.5 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 21.4 20.9 18.7 -2.8 17.5 19.0 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 21.0 20.6 18.6 -3.0 17.0 18.9 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 13.9 13.5 15.9 -2.7 16.2 19.2 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 21.4 21.1 17.0 -2.9 16.1 18.3 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 19.3 18.5 15.3 -2.6 16.2 20.5 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 20.6 20.8 18.8 -2.6 18.9 21.3 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 8.4 7.7 14.6 -3.2 13.0 16.0 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 20.8 20.5 17.9 -2.9 16.5 18.3 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 20.6 20.2 15.8 -3.2 15.0 17.3 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 20.6 19.9 17.4 -3.0 15.4 18.1 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 18.9 18.4 15.9 -3.0 14.1 17.4 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 20.2 19.8 17.0 -2.8 16.1 18.5 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 20.8 20.2 16.8 -3.6 13.5 15.2 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 21.7 21.0 19.0 -2.4 20.1 22.5 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 21.4 20.9 17.0 -2.7 16.1 19.3 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 20.2 20.1 18.4 -2.7 19.0 20.7 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 19.9 19.4 14.6 -3.4 14.8 16.4 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 20.4 20.0 18.5 -2.9 16.0 18.1 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 14.2 13.7 12.6 -3.4 13.7 15.4 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 20.9 20.5 18.6 -3.0 16.2 18.0 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 20.6 19.9 18.0 -3.0 14.6 17.6 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 20.8 20.4 18.3 -3.0 14.9 17.8 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 20.4 20.0 16.9 -3.4 15.1 16.7 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 21.0 20.5 17.8 -2.8 15.6 19.2 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 19.9 19.1 15.2 -2.9 12.6 17.0 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 21.0 21.0 18.4 -2.6 18.0 20.4 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 20.9 20.4 17.2 -2.6 17.4 20.4 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 14.6 14.0 13.8 -3.5 14.5 15.9 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 21.0 20.5 18.8 -2.8 17.4 19.4 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------