***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.0 14.1 0.8 68.9 67.8 11.9 12.3 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.2 13.8 0.7 70.5 67.0 11.9 12.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.6 14.0 0.6 67.6 65.6 13.5 14.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 10.1 10.3 11.5 0.7 72.9 68.7 8.4 9.2 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.5 11.8 0.7 71.1 67.2 10.5 11.1 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.3 10.6 9.6 0.8 76.2 70.2 9.4 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.8 13.8 0.7 69.3 65.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 5.1 5.2 9.1 0.5 64.8 63.0 4.0 4.6 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.5 12.5 11.8 0.6 71.6 66.8 11.4 11.7 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.2 10.0 0.5 66.0 63.8 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.0 11.1 0.6 69.1 66.1 11.1 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.3 10.1 0.6 68.7 65.1 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.7 9.9 0.5 69.5 65.1 10.4 11.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.6 11.4 0.3 59.9 58.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.2 13.0 0.9 76.7 72.7 12.2 12.5 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 12.7 12.7 10.7 0.7 71.6 67.4 11.6 12.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.3 13.5 0.7 68.6 66.1 12.3 12.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.5 9.3 0.4 63.4 61.7 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.1 13.7 0.7 69.5 66.2 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.8 7.3 0.4 62.9 61.7 5.7 6.2 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 12.5 12.5 13.2 0.6 69.2 65.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.2 13.2 0.4 63.7 61.1 11.4 12.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.7 13.5 0.6 66.3 64.7 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.2 11.4 0.4 63.1 61.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.8 12.9 0.7 69.4 67.7 11.7 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.3 9.5 0.6 69.2 65.8 10.3 10.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.0 13.5 0.8 68.8 68.2 11.9 12.6 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.4 11.5 11.9 0.7 74.1 69.4 10.4 10.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.3 8.5 0.3 59.9 59.3 8.1 8.9 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.2 14.0 0.7 69.7 66.5 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------