***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 13.6 13.8 14.8 1.1 68.1 64.0 11.6 12.7 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.6 14.6 1.1 68.5 63.6 11.5 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.6 15.0 14.8 1.0 66.8 63.0 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.9 12.2 1.0 65.8 63.5 8.0 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.9 12.1 0.9 66.2 62.7 10.5 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.4 10.3 1.1 69.3 65.9 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.8 14.6 1.0 67.5 62.7 11.6 13.2 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.5 5.5 9.8 0.8 66.6 62.4 3.7 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 12.8 12.6 12.3 0.9 66.7 62.5 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.6 10.7 0.9 66.1 62.4 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.3 11.5 0.9 67.9 62.5 10.8 11.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.6 10.7 0.9 69.3 63.2 9.3 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 12.0 11.7 10.2 0.9 67.3 62.1 10.5 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.0 12.1 0.7 62.7 59.4 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 13.8 13.6 13.5 1.0 68.4 64.5 12.1 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.7 11.0 1.0 68.7 63.2 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 13.7 13.7 14.4 1.0 69.3 63.5 11.9 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.1 9.9 0.9 67.1 62.6 9.9 10.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.5 14.5 1.0 68.7 63.5 11.5 12.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 7.3 6.9 7.7 0.7 63.8 61.0 5.8 6.7 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.5 12.6 13.8 0.9 66.0 62.7 11.4 12.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 12.5 13.0 14.0 0.9 67.7 61.7 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.6 13.1 14.3 1.0 68.4 62.8 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.5 12.0 0.8 65.1 61.7 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.4 13.3 1.0 65.4 63.0 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.2 11.3 10.0 1.0 68.6 63.6 9.9 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 13.6 13.5 14.1 1.1 67.2 64.0 11.5 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.8 12.5 1.0 67.8 63.9 10.7 11.0 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.0 9.2 0.7 65.1 61.1 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.8 14.7 1.0 67.7 63.2 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------